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Fooled by Randomness is the first work in a five-book series exploring randomness by bestselling author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. In this book, Taleb examines:
While Taleb primarily focuses on examples from the world of investing, his principles are applicable to any field ruled by unpredictability (such as economics and politics) and demonstrate how we’re fooled by randomness in many aspects of our lives.
(Shortform note: To further explore Taleb’s thoughts on randomness, read our summary of his second book in the series, The Black Swan.)
Usually, when we see someone who’s become fabulously successful, we attribute her success to a combination of skill and hard work. When we see someone who’s never had such riches, or who’s had them and lost them, we consider her simply not as capable.
But people don’t typically realize how much of an influence luck has on success or failure. Skill and hard work will generally only earn a person moderate success. Wild success, the kind that comes with many millions of dollars and lasting fame, is most often due to luck: a fortunate rare event plus a lack of negative rare events.