Nghịch lý của việc chọn cách làm an toàn

Tư duy sâu (second order thinking)

Tỷ phú, nhà đầu tư, doanh nhân Ray Dalio giải thích rất hay: “Việc không cân nhắc đến hậu quả sâu hơn bằng cách suy nghĩ cấp độ 2 (second order thinking), thậm chí cấp độ 3 (third order thinking) là nguyên nhân của nhiều quyết định tồi tệ một cách đau đớn, và đặc biệt nguy hiểm khi lựa chọn kém hơn đầu tiên (1st order thinking) khẳng định thành kiến của chính bản thân mình. Không bao giờ bập ngay (seize) vào tùy chọn có sẵn đầu tiên, cho dù nó có vẻ tốt như thế nào, trước khi bạn đặt câu hỏi và khám phá sâu hơn.”

Second order thinking as a mental model requires going out of our comfort zone to think outside this box. It requires analyzing the potential impact of our decision into the future. It requires asking these questions:

• How can I make decisions with positive outcomes compounded in the future?
• Is this decision attractive only because it has an immediate effect (first order consequence) positive?
• What can be the potential downside of this decision and its effect later?
• How far can I look to determine how every subsequent decision creates a world of possibilities or limits the outcomes I can achieve?

Second order thinking provides a framework to make decisions by learning the second order consequences of our decisions and analyzing its impact in the near future. Going beyond second level thinking is difficult, but some people learn to expand their thinking to the third level and beyond by asking the same questions at each level.

Ray Dalio describes this very well in his book Principles

Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions, and it is especially deadly when the first inferior option confirms your own biases. Never seize on the first available option, no matter how good it seems, before you’ve asked questions and explored.

How to develop second order thinking: Template to make better decisions

To develop second order thinking skills, let’s learn to evaluate the impact of first order effects by creating a template using these steps:

1. Note down the first solution that comes to your mind with its immediate positives and negatives. This is your first order thinking.
2. Then ask “What will be the future consequences of this decision” to evaluate the 2nd, 3rd level…nth level consequence. For each decision and level, write it’s corresponding positives and negatives.
3. Ask questions, more and more questions to yourself to learn from those questions
   • What are my risks associated with this decision?
   • How does my decision impact others?
   • What do others think about my decision?
   • Why do I think my decision is right?
   • Can I apply Occam’s razor to seek simpler solutions?
4. Choose the decision where second and third order consequences are positive even though first may not be positive (short term pain in favor of long term gain).